t is fascinating to compare the economic growth of the Baltic states and Caucasus regions and make predictions on their future growth. The competition between these two regions to achieve a GDP of 100 billion USD is intense. In 2012, the total GDP of the Baltic states was 92.47 billion USD, while that of the Caucasus was 92.94 billion USD, with the latter leading by just 47 million USD. With 2013 already underway, it is interesting to take a look at the forecasts for each country and make predictions for the year.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts that Georgia's economy will grow by 3% in 2013, a decrease from the 5% predicted in January and lower than the government's official forecast of 6%. Armenia is expected to have a 5% growth, while Azerbaijan is expected to grow by 5% as well. On the other hand, the growth predictions for the Baltic states are much lower. Estonia is forecasted to have a growth rate of 1%, Latvia 4.1%, and Lithuania 3.5%.
When we perform some simple calculations based on these predictions, we see that the Caucasus region is expected to have a total GDP of 97.27 billion USD, while the Baltic states are expected to have a total GDP of 95.31 billion USD. This means that both regions are expected to have some economic growth, with an increase of 7.17 billion USD, equivalent to 70% of Armenia's economy.
However, it remains to be seen what the real figures for 2013 will be. It is also worth exploring the reasons behind the low GDP growth rate prediction for Estonia, and whether it is possible for Georgia to catch up to Estonia in the future. Georgia has a population that is roughly three times that of Estonia, and with a current difference of 5.76 billion USD, it will be interesting to see if Georgia can close the gap in the near future.
In conclusion, it is clear that both the Baltic states and the Caucasus regions are experiencing economic growth, and that their competition to achieve a GDP of 100 billion USD is far from over. Only time will tell what the real figures for 2013 will be, and which region will come out on top. Regardless of the outcome, it is heartening to see that both regions are experiencing positive economic growth and making strides towards a brighter future.
