In on of my previous posts - I measured GDP's in Baltic states and Caucasus in 2012. And in that blog post I asked a question, which of the regions first will achieve mark 100 bln USD GDP.
In 2012 Baltic states had 92.47 billion USD in total, and Caucasus 92.94 billion USD in total. By doing simple calculations we easily could find out that Caucasus in 2012 led by by 47 millions USD. As a regular human being I became inpatient - so I decided to see what will look 2013 year?
Since fiscal 2013 has not yet been finished yet (it's just October right now) - I took a look for forecast for each country, by different sources.
- EBRD predicts Georgia’s economy will grow 3% in 2013, instead of 5% it forecasted in January and well below of the Georgian government's official forecast of 6%.
- The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts in its official report a 5-percent economic growth in Armenia in 2013, and a 4-percent growth –in 2014.
- We expect GDP to grow... by 5 percent over the entire year (in 2013). In 2014, we forecast GDP growth of 6.7 percent," Economy Minister Shahin Mustafayev told journalists on Friday.
- EY downgrades Estonia's economic growth forecast to 1% for 2013
- Latvian central bank kept its GDP forecast for 2013 at 4.1%.
- Danske Bank keeps Lithuania’s 2013 GDP growth forecasts at 3.5 percent
It's time to do some mathematical calculations:
Georgia 2013 3% = 16.3049 bln USD Armenia 2013 5% = 10.4055 bln USD Azerbaijan 2013 5% = 70.56 bln USD Total 97.27 bln USD
Estonia 2013 1% = 22.06 bln USD Latvia 2013 4.1% = 29.53 bln USD Lithuanaia 2013 3.5% = 43.72 bln USD Total 95.31 bln USD
As we can see from these predictions, both of the regions have some economic growth, in total of 7.17 bln USD which could be measured as 70% GDP of economy of Armenia. 7.17 bln USD is pretty impressive amount of money. But still, as we can see from these predictions, none of the regions will achieve 100 bln in total in 2013.
The question I would like to ask this time: What will be the real figures for 2013? Why Estonia has only 1% GDP growth rate prediction? Is it possible that in close future Georgia will catch up Estonia by GDP? The difference right know is 5.76 bln USD, and Georgia is like 3 Estonia's in term of population.