Georgia then, now, future

Updated: 13 October, 2021 seen 978

This article was originally written back in October 2013

Since I've been living in Georgia, I decided it would be no harm to create a few charts projecting Georgia's historical GDP,  to add some future values, and to see how Georgia's economy could look like in the next 5 years.

I have already created a few charts related to South Caucasus region, like Baltic states vs Caucasus and Caucasus vs Baltics by forecast GDP 2013. Now it's time to see - how Georgia looks like from the point of GDP:

Historical GDP by Nominal

 

As seen from the chart, Georgia, like other former republics of the Soviet Union is no exception in decline in her economy in 1990-ties.

Let us take a closer look at Georgian economy by years:

  • 1991 - Collapse of Soviet Union, Georgia joins CIS. Economy shrinks
  • 1992-1993 - War in Abhazia - economy continues to shrink
  • 1994 - Economy hits the bottom, by resulting in 2.513 bln USD in total, or 517 USD per capita
  • 1995 - 1998 - Slow, but growth.
  • 1998 - Again War in Abhazia, now just six days
  • 1999 - Economy shrinks again by some 20% - hard to tell, is it related to War in Abkhazia in the previous year, or with much greater Russian Economical crisis, guess the second has a greater impact of Georgian GDP
  • 2000-2003 - Slow, but growth
  • 2004 - Rose Revolution, the start of faster economic growth. But I wouldn't say that just the Rose Revolution is the main factor of this, in World overall starting 2000-s has been much faster economic growth as in previous decades.
  • 2004-2008 - faster economical growth. In 2006 Georgia first time since Collapse of Soviet Union has greater GDP than in 1991. 
  • 2008 - 5-day war
  • 2009 - World economical crisis. Again it's hard to say, which has a greater impact on Georgian economy - World Crisis, or 5-day war? In general Georgia after the war in August 2008, has received much international aid.
  • 2010 - 2012 Economy recovers and moves on.

Historical chart of GDP per capita

 

As I already mentioned, I would like to display some charts with Georgia GDP future forecasts, by International Monetary Fund (IMF)

According to IMF, Georgian GDP will rise average 6% per year until 2018, and in 2018 it could be approx 21.81 bln USD

What do you think, is this GDP growth possible, will it happen? Is it normal GDP for a country with 4.5 mln population? How will Georgia close this decade, what numbers should we expect?