Will China's economy to be worlds largest?

Updated: 24 June, 2014 seen 1,095

It seems is a hot topic in our days - Will China out perform United States by GDP in close future. I'm more skeptical than others, and I don't believe this will happen in next 10 years. After 10 years, who knows - maybe. 

United States accounts about $15.8 trilion GDP in 2012, whilce China's GDP is about $8.227. Some opportunists have called year 2017, when China will surpass United States. Really? 2017? China will expand it's economy for another $8 trillions in next 5 years? Doesn't sound realistic.

IMF prognosis, which may and sometimes may not be the best source for forecast, shows that China's GDP in 2018 will be $ 13.76 trillion, while US GDP will reach $21.55 trillion, call me mad, but both figures seems non-realistic for me, if compared to today. But math's doesn't lies? Aren't it? By scenario if China will reach $13.76 trillions by end on 2018, China should need at least 7% GDP growth rate yearly. So if we believe that China's economy will continue to rise 7% yearly, then $13.76 trillion GDP is quite realistic. What about USA? It should see GDP growth yearly about 3%... Which again is quite realistic.

So let's make a chart:


Data in this chart are taken from IMF prognosis. According to data GDP nominal in USA 2012 was $16.244 trillions, while in China $8.221 trillions, making a difference $8.023 trillions.

In 2018 USA GDP would be equivalent to $21.556 trillions, while Chinese GDP is expected to be $13.76 trillions. Making a gap $7.796 trillions.

So I don't see any economical reason to see why China should out perform GDP of USA till 2017, or 2018.. I rather don't believe that this will happen at least till 2035-2040, if will happen at all.

Of-course, I cannot give a prognosis what will happen in next 5-10 years. It's pretty long time, much can happen, and data provided can be useless. But if sticking to given - from where the year 2017, that China will out perform US?





Hi! My name is Reinis Fischer (38). Dad, husband, options traderdividend income investorcrypto hedge fund manager, drone enthusiast, world traveler, photographer, and passionate lover of Georgian cuisine (vegetarian). 

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