Recently I wrote an article about Georgia, then, now - future, this time I would like to write about Armenia.
Landlocked land, with huge economic problems, ongoing conflicts with neighboring Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karbakh region. A country that plans to enter Eurasian Union on January 1st, 2014.
Let's start with some basic chart:
As seen from the chart above, Armenia, as well as neighboring Georgia, is no exception, in economic shrink after collapsing of Soviet Union. Now let's take a closer look by years:
- 1991. - The collapse of Soviet Union - Economy Shrinks
- 1992-1993. The economy continues to shrink, by reaching its bottom in 1993 in resulting GDP nominal just 1.201 bln USD
- 1994-1998. Economy starts to recover, reaching GDP 1.893 bln USD nominal
- 1999-2000. Looks like Armenia is softly touched by Russian economic crisis as well
- 2001 - 2008. "Golden ages" for Armenian economy. Armenia first in 2002 has greater GDP, that it was in 1990. The Year of 2008 is yet the best year for Armenian GDP - reaching 11.662 bln USD
- 2009. As the rest of world Armenia is hit by World economic crisis
- 2010-2011. Slow recovery
- 2012. Recession
- 2013. It's proposed that Armenian GDP will grow by 4.6%
- 2014. It's proposed that Armenian GDP will rise for another 5.2%
I would like to add, that despite many sources claim that Armenia is worst economy in the world - I wouldn't say that, because of being isolated from the side of Azerbaijan and Turkey, only economical ties are left with Georgia. Armenia doesn't have a direct border with Russia. Some may wonder, why Armenia would like to enter Custom Union. But what else is left for Armenia? And by putting all this together, I would say - Armenia is keeping briskly. Imagine Armenia regulates relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkey...
Anyway, let's see what International Monetary Fund prognoses for Armenia in Future
According to the chart above, we can see that Armenia will have ~ 5% GDP growth each year, next 5 years. And just by 2016, Armenia could reach it's pre-crisis level as it was in 2008.
But, I wouldn't be so skeptical about future of Armenia, because I have this feeling that if Armenia will incorporate in Eurasian Union - we will see much greater GDP growth.